Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 6%-9%?
ActiveLiquidity $24.3K·Volume $47.5K·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes0%No100%
Smart money leans
No
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$386 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered95¢100¢at 07:00(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneSignal age30dResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$24.3K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $386 riding on it.
The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 95¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $386 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:00
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $7 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $7 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $7 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $16 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $32 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 1.4¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 1.1¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 2.4¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 2.0¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 2.4¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 2.4¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 2.4¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 2.4¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 2.3¢ | $3 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 0.8¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 0.8¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 0.8¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 0.8¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 0.8¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 0.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 1.7¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 1.7¢ | $6 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 1.6¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 1.6¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 1.6¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 1.7¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 2.0¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 1.6¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 1.6¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 3.0¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 3.0¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 2.3¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $37 |
| 1w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $37 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 2.8¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $68 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 2.5¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $92 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 2.7¢ | $3 |
| 1w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $98 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 2.0¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $24 |