Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election by 6%-9%?
ActiveLiquidity $12.4K·Volume $16.8K·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes0%No100%
Smart money leans
No
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$606 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered83¢100¢at 07:05(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$12.4K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $606 riding on it.
The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 83¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $606 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:05
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 87¢ | $17 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 85¢ | $44 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $15 |
| 1w ago | Albert 1953Mid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $606 |
| 2w ago | Mangy62Top | Sell | No | 87¢ | $870 |
| 2w ago | Mangy62Top | Buy | No | 81¢ | $810 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 77¢ | $18 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 77¢ | $172 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 77¢ | $4 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 77¢ | $4 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 77¢ | $15 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 77¢ | $30 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 77¢ | $28 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 77¢ | $8 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 26¢ | $26 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 25¢ | $3 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 25¢ | $13 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 25¢ | $13 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 25¢ | $3 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 25¢ | $3 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 24¢ | $8 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 23¢ | $19 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 22¢ | $5 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 22¢ | $6 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 22¢ | $2 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 22¢ | $5 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $49 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $1 |
| 4w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 31¢ | $3 |
| 4w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $6 |
| 4w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 26¢ | $3 |
| 4w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 18¢ | $4 |
| 6w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 16¢ | $2 |
| 6w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 16¢ | $1 |
| 6w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 15¢ | $6 |