Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 SD-AL House election by 20%-25%?
ActiveLiquidity $10.7K·Volume $6,783·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes1%No99%
Smart money leans
No
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$358 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered74¢99¢at 07:27(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy4d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$10.7K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $358 riding on it.
The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 74¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $358 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:27
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d ago | ancianoMid | Buy | No | 100¢ | $258 |
| 4d ago | ancianoMid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $75 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | No | 63¢ | $21 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 40¢ | $82 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 42¢ | $2 |
| 3w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | No | 70¢ | $13 |
| 3w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | No | 70¢ | $14 |
| 3w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | No | 69¢ | $50 |