Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OK-04 House election by 15%-20%?
ActiveLiquidity $11.1K·Volume $6,492·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes100%No0%
Smart money leans
Yes
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$398 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered32¢100¢at 07:42(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy3d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$11.1K
Explanation
3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $398 riding on it.
The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 32¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $398 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:42
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3d ago | ancianoMid | Buy | Yes | 100¢ | $3 |
| 3d ago | ancianoMid | Buy | Yes | 99¢ | $41 |
| 3d ago | ancianoMid | Buy | Yes | 99¢ | $51 |
| 4d ago | ancianoMid | Buy | Yes | 100¢ | $47 |
| 4d ago | ancianoMid | Buy | Yes | 100¢ | $73 |
| 1w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 81¢ | $36 |
| 1w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 76¢ | $111 |
| 1w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 63¢ | $13 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | Yes | 63¢ | $13 |
| 1w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 39¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 39¢ | $8 |
| 1w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $89 |
| 5w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | Yes | 13¢ | $12 |
| 6w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 9.3¢ | $9 |