Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OK-03 House election by 25%-30%?
ActiveLiquidity $10.9K·Volume $20.7K·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes98%No2%
Smart money leans
Yes
98% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
98%price98%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$1,003 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$25
Smart money entered87¢98¢at 07:43(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$10.9K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $1,003 riding on it.
The price of 98% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 87¢; the price was 98¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $1,003 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$25 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:43
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2d ago | ancianoMid | Buy | Yes | 100¢ | $1 |
| 2d ago | ancianoMid | Buy | Yes | 100¢ | $12 |
| 2d ago | ancianoMid | Buy | Yes | 100¢ | $12 |
| 3d ago | ancianoMid | Buy | Yes | 100¢ | $199 |
| 4d ago | ancianoMid | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $739 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 96¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 58¢ | $47 |
| 1w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 40¢ | $66 |
| 1w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | Yes | 9.7¢ | $6 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 65¢ | $3 |
| 5w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | Yes | 15¢ | $47 |
| 5w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 5.7¢ | $19 |
| 7w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | No | 95¢ | $252 |