Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NY-24 House election by 30%-35%?
ActiveLiquidity $2,168·Volume $3,442·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes1%No99%
Smart money leans
No
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$314 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered88¢99¢at 07:43(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2w agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$2,168
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $314 riding on it.
The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 88¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $314 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:43
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 5.0¢ | $8 |
| 1w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 5.0¢ | $1 |
| 2w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 5.0¢ | $1 |
| 2w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | No | 88¢ | $529 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 81¢ | $16 |