Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NY-24 House election by 25%-30%?
ActiveLiquidity $2,197·Volume $3,104·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes2%No98%
Smart money leans
No
98% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
98%price98%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$386 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered82¢98¢at 07:37(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$2,197
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $386 riding on it.
The price of 98% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 82¢; the price was 98¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $386 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:37
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $84 |
| 1w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | No | 95¢ | $19 |
| 1w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | No | 95¢ | $11 |
| 1w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | No | 95¢ | $13 |
| 1w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | No | 95¢ | $24 |
| 2w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | No | 95¢ | $0 |
| 2w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | No | 95¢ | $0 |
| 2w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | No | 95¢ | $85 |
| 2w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | No | 95¢ | $19 |
| 2w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | No | 80¢ | $481 |
| 2w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | No | 88¢ | $2 |
| 2w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | No | 88¢ | $12 |
| 3w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | No | 88¢ | $4 |
| 3w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | No | 88¢ | $18 |