Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NH-01 House election by 5% or more?
ActiveLiquidity $2,417·Volume $1,315·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes0%No100%
Smart money leans
No
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$417 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered100¢100¢at 07:37(0% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy4d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$2,417
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $417 riding on it.
The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 100¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $417 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:37
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d ago | ancianoMid | Buy | No | 100¢ | $418 |
| 7w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | Yes | 0.8¢ | $2 |