Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election by 3%-6%?
ActiveLiquidity $2,186·Volume $3,387·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes84%No16%
Smart money leans
Yes
82% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
82%price82%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$686 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered77¢82¢at 11:31(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy3d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$2,186
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $686 riding on it.
The price of 82% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 77¢; the price was 82¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $686 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 11:31
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3d ago | ancianoMid | Buy | Yes | 99¢ | $98 |
| 4d ago | ancianoMid | Buy | Yes | 100¢ | $7 |
| 4d ago | ancianoMid | Buy | Yes | 100¢ | $27 |
| 4d ago | ancianoMid | Buy | Yes | 96¢ | $537 |
| 6d ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 46¢ | $47 |
| 6d ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 46¢ | $23 |