Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Nebraska Senate election by 3%-6%?
ActiveLiquidity $15·Volume $4,012·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes45%No55%
Smart money leans
Yes
45% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
45%price45%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$442 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$282
72h +$471
Smart money entered52¢45¢at 07:28(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy22h agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$15
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $442 riding on it.
The price of 45% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 52¢; the price was 45¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $442 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$282, +$471 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:28
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22h ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 61¢ | $380 |
| 1d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 67¢ | $12 |
| 1d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 67¢ | $12 |
| 2d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 65¢ | $7 |
| 2d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 65¢ | $7 |
| 2d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 51¢ | $4 |
| 2d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 50¢ | $4 |
| 2d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 50¢ | $5 |
| 2d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 46¢ | $32 |
| 2d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 46¢ | $37 |
| 2d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 46¢ | $30 |
| 2d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $24 |
| 2d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $24 |
| 2d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $7 |
| 2d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 46¢ | $9 |
| 2d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 46¢ | $6 |
| 2d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 44¢ | $2 |
| 2d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 44¢ | $2 |
| 2d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 44¢ | $2 |
| 4d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 15¢ | $2 |
| 4d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 7.3¢ | $2 |
| 4d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 7.3¢ | $1 |
| 4d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 7.3¢ | $2 |
| 4d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 7.2¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | No | 82¢ | $21 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 18¢ | $9 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | No | 76¢ | $14 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 76¢ | $21 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 76¢ | $15 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | No | 76¢ | $6 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 88¢ | $18 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 89¢ | $9 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 89¢ | $29 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 88¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 18¢ | $3 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $3 |
| 6w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 21¢ | $3 |
| 6w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 21¢ | $2 |
| 6w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 21¢ | $5 |
| 6w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 22¢ | $3 |