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Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Nebraska Senate election by 3%-6%?

ActiveLiquidity $15·Volume $4,012·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes45%No55%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 07:28computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Yes
45% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
45%price45%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$442 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$282
72h +$471
Smart money entered52¢45¢at 07:28(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy22h agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$15
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $442 riding on it.

The price of 45% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 52¢; the price was 45¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Note: only $442 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$282, +$471 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 07:28
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
22h agolongliveapplesTopBuyYes61¢$380
1d agolongliveapplesTopBuyYes67¢$12
1d agolongliveapplesTopBuyYes67¢$12
2d agoshiifooMidBuyNo65¢$7
2d agoshiifooMidBuyNo65¢$7
2d agoshiifooMidBuyYes51¢$4
2d agoshiifooMidBuyYes50¢$4
2d agoshiifooMidBuyYes50¢$5
2d agoshiifooMidBuyYes46¢$32
2d agoshiifooMidBuyYes46¢$37
2d agoshiifooMidBuyYes46¢$30
2d agoshiifooMidBuyYes45¢$24
2d agoshiifooMidBuyYes45¢$24
2d agoshiifooMidBuyYes45¢$7
2d agoshiifooMidBuyYes46¢$9
2d agoshiifooMidBuyYes46¢$6
2d agoshiifooMidBuyYes44¢$2
2d agoshiifooMidBuyYes44¢$2
2d agoshiifooMidBuyYes44¢$2
4d agoshiifooMidBuyYes15¢$2
4d agoshiifooMidBuyYes7.3¢$2
4d agoshiifooMidBuyYes7.3¢$1
4d agoshiifooMidBuyYes7.3¢$2
4d agoshiifooMidBuyYes7.2¢$1
6d agothanksforplayinTopSellNo82¢$21
6d agoshiifooMidBuyYes18¢$9
1w agothanksforplayinTopBuyNo76¢$14
1w agoshiifooMidBuyNo76¢$21
1w agoshiifooMidBuyNo76¢$15
1w agothanksforplayinTopBuyNo76¢$6
1w agoshiifooMidBuyNo88¢$18
1w agoshiifooMidBuyNo89¢$9
1w agoshiifooMidBuyNo89¢$29
1w agoshiifooMidBuyNo88¢$5
1w agoshiifooMidBuyYes18¢$3
1w agoshiifooMidBuyYes17¢$3
6w agoshiifooMidBuyYes21¢$3
6w agoshiifooMidBuyYes21¢$2
6w agoshiifooMidBuyYes21¢$5
6w agoshiifooMidBuyYes22¢$3