Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MS-01 House election by 15%-20%?
ActiveLiquidity $46·Volume $2,995·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes97%No3%
Smart money leans
Yes
97% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
97%price97%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$491 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$1,027
Smart money entered93¢97¢at 07:30(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$46
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $491 riding on it.
The price of 97% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 93¢; the price was 97¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $491 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$1,027 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:30
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2d ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | Yes | 93¢ | $491 |
| 2d ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | Yes | 93¢ | $491 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 7.9¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 3.3¢ | $2 |
| 4w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | Yes | 14¢ | $3 |
| 5w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | Yes | 12¢ | $22 |
| 5w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 9.2¢ | $2 |
| 6w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $2 |
| 6w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 14¢ | $3 |
| 6w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 9.2¢ | $4 |
| 6w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | Yes | 15¢ | $46 |
| 6w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 8.0¢ | $35 |