Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 ME-02 House election by 12% or more?
ActiveLiquidity $2,381·Volume $1,239·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes2%No98%
Smart money leans
No
98% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
98%price98%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$258 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered90¢98¢at 07:38(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2w agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$2,381
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $258 riding on it.
The price of 98% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 90¢; the price was 98¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $258 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:38
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $16 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $54 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $11 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 8.3¢ | $13 |
| 2w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | No | 94¢ | $43 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 6.5¢ | $1 |
| 2w ago | viniiTop | Buy | No | 91¢ | $33 |
| 2w ago | viniiTop | Buy | No | 90¢ | $225 |
| 3w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | No | 94¢ | $9 |
| 3w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | No | 91¢ | $18 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 9.4¢ | $1 |
| 3w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | No | 91¢ | $32 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $2 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $3 |
| 7w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 9.6¢ | $3 |
| 7w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $1 |
| 7w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $2 |
| 7w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 10¢ | $1 |
| 7w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 8.6¢ | $1 |