Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MD-01 House election by 15%-18%?
ActiveLiquidity $10.4K·Volume $6,606·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes2%No98%
Smart money leans
No
98% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
98%price98%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$294 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered74¢98¢at 07:39(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$10.4K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $294 riding on it.
The price of 98% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 74¢; the price was 98¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $294 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:39
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | No | 74¢ | $297 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 73¢ | $15 |