Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 KY-04 House election by 5%-15%?
ActiveLiquidity $59·Volume $3,506·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes95%No5%
Smart money leans
Yes
95% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
95%price95%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$388 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$388
Smart money entered96¢95¢at 05:44(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy1d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$59
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $388 riding on it.
The price of 95% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 96¢; the price was 95¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $388 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$388 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 05:44
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d ago | 0x34ab…f1dbMid | Buy | Yes | 99¢ | $9 |
| 1d ago | 0x34ab…f1dbMid | Buy | Yes | 96¢ | $386 |