Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 KY-02 House election by 40%-45%?
ActiveLiquidity $10.8K·Volume $6,648·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes1%No99%
Smart money leans
No
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$255 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered70¢99¢at 07:35(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2w agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$10.8K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $255 riding on it.
The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 70¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $255 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:35
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | No | 93¢ | $56 |
| 1w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | No | 96¢ | $38 |
| 2w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | No | 84¢ | $25 |
| 2w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | No | 89¢ | $98 |
| 2w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | No | 89¢ | $9 |
| 2w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | No | 91¢ | $55 |
| 2w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | No | 72¢ | $342 |
| 2w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | No | 84¢ | $7 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 63¢ | $76 |
| 2w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | No | 84¢ | $10 |
| 3w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | No | 84¢ | $17 |
| 4w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | No | 89¢ | $148 |
| 6w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | No | 86¢ | $17 |
| 6w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $23 |
| 6w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | No | 84¢ | $42 |
| 6w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | No | 81¢ | $57 |