Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IN-05 House election by 21% or more?
ActiveLiquidity $262·Volume $1,750·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes2%No99%
Smart money leans
No
98% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
98%price98%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$308 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered93¢98¢at 07:38(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$262
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $308 riding on it.
The price of 98% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 93¢; the price was 98¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $308 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:38
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d ago | HolyMoses7Mid | Sell | Yes | 0.2¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $308 |