Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IN-05 House election by 12%-15%?
ActiveLiquidity $2,064·Volume $4,634·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes0%No100%
Smart money leans
No
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$349 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered79¢100¢at 07:37(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2w agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$2,064
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $349 riding on it.
The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 79¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $349 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:37
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d ago | HolyMoses7Mid | Sell | Yes | 0.1¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | No | 88¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | No | 88¢ | $183 |
| 2w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | No | 81¢ | $22 |
| 2w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | No | 81¢ | $8 |
| 2w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | No | 81¢ | $3 |
| 2w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | No | 88¢ | $2 |
| 2w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | No | 83¢ | $33 |
| 2w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | No | 83¢ | $15 |
| 2w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | No | 79¢ | $438 |