Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IL-12 House election by 45%-50%?
ActiveLiquidity $2,094·Volume $2,524·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes2%No98%
Smart money leans
No
98% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
98%price98%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$481 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered86¢98¢at 07:35(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy6d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$2,094
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $481 riding on it.
The price of 98% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 86¢; the price was 98¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $481 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:35
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | No | 100¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | No | 100¢ | $0 |
| 6d ago | ancianoMid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $39 |
| 1w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | No | 85¢ | $54 |
| 1w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | No | 90¢ | $97 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | No | 94¢ | $18 |
| 2w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | No | 94¢ | $19 |
| 2w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | No | 86¢ | $601 |
| 3w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | No | 94¢ | $18 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 5.6¢ | $1 |
| 3w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | No | 94¢ | $19 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 5.6¢ | $1 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $2 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 9.0¢ | $2 |