Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Idaho Senate election by 15%-20%?
ActiveLiquidity $6,418·Volume $2,961·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes0%No100%
Smart money leans
No
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$323 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered68¢100¢at 07:33(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$6,418
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $323 riding on it.
The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 68¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $323 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:33
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 3.0¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | Albert 1953Mid | Buy | No | 68¢ | $326 |