Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida Senate election by 3%-6%?
ActiveLiquidity $2,531·Volume $37.6K·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes4%No97%
Smart money leans
No
97% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
67%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
97%price97%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$1,738 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered69¢97¢at 07:06(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$2,531
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is somewhat betting on "No", with $1,738 riding on it.
The price of 97% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 69¢; the price was 97¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $1,738 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:06
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d ago | title1Mid | Sell | Yes | 4.2¢ | $3 |
| 5d ago | title1Mid | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $17 |
| 5d ago | title1Mid | Buy | Yes | 18¢ | $11 |
| 5d ago | title1Mid | Buy | Yes | 18¢ | $1 |
| 5d ago | title1Mid | Buy | Yes | 18¢ | $6 |
| 5d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 81¢ | $4 |
| 6d ago | title1Mid | Buy | Yes | 22¢ | $22 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 77¢ | $170 |
| 6d ago | title1Mid | Buy | Yes | 21¢ | $2 |
| 6d ago | title1Mid | Buy | Yes | 18¢ | $4 |
| 6d ago | title1Mid | Buy | Yes | 18¢ | $4 |
| 6d ago | title1Mid | Buy | No | 80¢ | $7 |
| 6d ago | title1Mid | Buy | No | 80¢ | $37 |
| 6d ago | title1Mid | Buy | Yes | 15¢ | $26 |
| 6d ago | title1Mid | Buy | Yes | 15¢ | $20 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 78¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 15¢ | $7 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | title1Mid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $26 |
| 6d ago | title1Mid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $19 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 9.0¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 9.0¢ | $2 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 9.0¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 9.0¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 9.0¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 9.0¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 9.0¢ | $2 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 9.0¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 9.0¢ | $2 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 9.0¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 9.0¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 9.0¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 9.0¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 8.0¢ | $0 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 8.0¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 8.0¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $70 |
| 6d ago | title1Mid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $92 |
| 6d ago | title1Mid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $3 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 8.0¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 8.0¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 10¢ | $2 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 10.0¢ | $3 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 9.0¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 78¢ | $39 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 78¢ | $39 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 78¢ | $6 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 78¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 78¢ | $21 |