Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-18 House election by 0%-5%?
ActiveLiquidity $109·Volume $3,456·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes95%No5%
Smart money leans
Yes
95% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
95%price95%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$307 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered78¢95¢at 07:25(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy6d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$109
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $307 riding on it.
The price of 95% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 78¢; the price was 95¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $307 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:25
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d ago | HolyMoses7Mid | Buy | Yes | 97¢ | $303 |
| 1w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $11 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 2.5¢ | $1 |
| 3w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | Yes | 9.1¢ | $10 |
| 6w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 4.8¢ | $4 |
| 6w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 2.1¢ | $1 |