Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-16 House election by 3%-6%?
ActiveLiquidity $10.1K·Volume $8,192·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes99%No1%
Smart money leans
Yes
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
4
$574 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$494
Smart money entered90¢99¢at 07:26(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$10.1K
Explanation
4 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $574 riding on it.
The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 90¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $574 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$494 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:26
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $487 |
| 6d ago | HolyMoses7Mid | Buy | Yes | 97¢ | $11 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 81¢ | $7 |
| 1w ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $51 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 81¢ | $9 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 47¢ | $17 |