Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-01 House election by 25%-30%?
ActiveLiquidity $77·Volume $3,440·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes95%No5%
Smart money leans
Yes
95% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
95%price95%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$366 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$34
Smart money entered84¢95¢at 05:43(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$77
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $366 riding on it.
The price of 95% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 84¢; the price was 95¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $366 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$34 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 05:43
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2d ago | 0x34ab…f1dbMid | Buy | Yes | 99¢ | $36 |
| 5d ago | 0x34ab…f1dbMid | Buy | Yes | 97¢ | $211 |
| 1w ago | HolyMoses7Mid | Buy | Yes | 95¢ | $134 |
| 5w ago | 0xfe2d…da35Mid | Buy | No | 74¢ | $4 |
| 10w ago | 0xfe2d…da35Mid | Buy | No | 85¢ | $17 |