Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Connecticut gubernatorial election?
ActiveLiquidity $2,884·Volume $1,835·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes0%No100%
Smart money leans
No
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$530 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered100¢100¢at 06:31(0% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy6d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$2,884
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $530 riding on it.
The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 100¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $530 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.