Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-05 House election by 0%-5%?
ActiveLiquidity $2,316·Volume $2,999·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes99%No1%
Smart money leans
Yes
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$830 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$838
Smart money entered98¢99¢at 05:44(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$2,316
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $830 riding on it.
The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 98¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $830 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$838 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 05:44
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d ago | 0x34ab…f1dbMid | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $830 |
| 8w ago | 0xfe2d…da35Mid | Buy | No | 89¢ | $24 |