Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AL-06 House election by 10%-20%?
ActiveLiquidity $64·Volume $2,261·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes93%No8%
Smart money leans
Yes
92% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
92%price92%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$419 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered77¢92¢at 07:35(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$64
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $419 riding on it.
The price of 92% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 77¢; the price was 92¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $419 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:35
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 80¢ | $404 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 48¢ | $20 |
| 3w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | Yes | 15¢ | $14 |
| 3w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | No | 85¢ | $17 |
| 3w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | No | 89¢ | $18 |
| 6w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 8.0¢ | $9 |