Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AL-05 House election by 40% or more?
ActiveLiquidity $2,441·Volume $1,954·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes0%No100%
Smart money leans
No
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$548 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered91¢100¢at 07:37(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$2,441
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $548 riding on it.
The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 91¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $548 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:37
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | clazzy1Mid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $548 |