Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AL-04 House election by 65%-70%?
ActiveLiquidity $10.3K·Volume $6,250·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes2%No98%
Smart money leans
No
98% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
98%price98%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$417 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered76¢98¢at 07:34(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$10.3K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $417 riding on it.
The price of 98% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 76¢; the price was 98¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $417 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:34
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | Yes | 6.5¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | No | 88¢ | $97 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 8.8¢ | $10 |
| 2w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | No | 90¢ | $137 |
| 2w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | No | 73¢ | $432 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 14¢ | $3 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 13¢ | $3 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 9.3¢ | $3 |