Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?
ActiveLiquidity $1,884·Volume $72.9K·Ends Apr 1, 2027
Price now:Yes67%No33%
Smart money leans
Yes
67% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
67%price67%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$786 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered72¢67¢at 07:05(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy1w agoResolvesin 141d(Apr 1, 2027)Liquidity$1,884
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $786 riding on it.
The price of 67% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 72¢; the price was 67¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $786 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:05
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | Yes | 72¢ | $837 |