Will the Opportunity Party win 7-9 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
ActiveLiquidity $10.2K·Volume $6,958·Ends Nov 8, 2026
Price now:Yes97%No3%
Smart money leans
Yes
97% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
97%price97%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$538 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered74¢97¢at 17:13(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy4d agoResolvesended(Nov 8, 2026)Liquidity$10.2K
Explanation
3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $538 riding on it.
The price of 97% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 74¢; the price was 97¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $538 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 17:13
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | Yes | 95¢ | $34 |
| 4d ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | Yes | 95¢ | $11 |
| 4d ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | Yes | 95¢ | $48 |
| 4d ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | Yes | 95¢ | $59 |
| 4d ago | fbetMid | Buy | Yes | 93¢ | $402 |
| 4d ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | Yes | 88¢ | $72 |
| 4d ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | Yes | 84¢ | $58 |
| 4d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 65¢ | $9 |
| 4d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 65¢ | $13 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 41¢ | $82 |
| 4d ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | Yes | 45¢ | $151 |
| 4d ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | Yes | 63¢ | $106 |
| 4d ago | viniiTop | Buy | Yes | 59¢ | $27 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 58¢ | $29 |
| 4d ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | Yes | 59¢ | $161 |
| 5d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 54¢ | $27 |
| 5d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 55¢ | $11 |
| 5d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 52¢ | $362 |
| 1w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 49¢ | $158 |
| 1w ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | No | 67¢ | $13 |
| 1w ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | No | 80¢ | $16 |
| 1w ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 15¢ | $3 |
| 1w ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 10¢ | $2 |