Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT + NZF?
ActiveLiquidity $17.0K·Volume $34.1K·Ends Nov 8, 2026
Price now:Yes86%No14%
Smart money leans
Yes
87% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
86%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
87%price87%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$1,795 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$1,242
Smart money entered68¢87¢at 07:16(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy21h agoResolvesended(Nov 8, 2026)Liquidity$17.0K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $1,795 riding on it.
The price of 87% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 68¢; the price was 87¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $1,795 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$1,242 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:16
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21h ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 85¢ | $2 |
| 21h ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 85¢ | $2 |
| 2d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 80¢ | $1,184 |
| 2d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 84¢ | $8 |
| 3d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 78¢ | $8 |
| 3d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 78¢ | $23 |
| 3d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 78¢ | $31 |
| 3d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 78¢ | $1 |
| 3d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 78¢ | $20 |
| 3d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 78¢ | $20 |
| 3d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 78¢ | $35 |
| 3d ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 64¢ | $11 |
| 3d ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 64¢ | $3 |
| 3d ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 64¢ | $36 |
| 3d ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 64¢ | $13 |
| 4d ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 69¢ | $5 |
| 4d ago | viniiTop | Buy | Yes | 48¢ | $90 |
| 4d ago | viniiTop | Buy | Yes | 47¢ | $77 |
| 4d ago | whigTop | Sell | Yes | 50¢ | $143 |
| 4d ago | viniiTop | Buy | No | 48¢ | $1,591 |
| 4d ago | whigTop | Buy | Yes | 56¢ | $280 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | No | 35¢ | $175 |
| 6d ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 52¢ | $16 |
| 6d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 46¢ | $687 |
| 6d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 48¢ | $0 |
| 6d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 48¢ | $15 |
| 6d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 39¢ | $209 |
| 6d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 40¢ | $5 |
| 6d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $92 |
| 6d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 25¢ | $28 |
| 6d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $15 |
| 6d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | No | 54¢ | $1,092 |
| 1w ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 46¢ | $11 |
| 1w ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | No | 45¢ | $57 |
| 1w ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 46¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 46¢ | $12 |
| 1w ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $3 |
| 1w ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 50¢ | $4 |
| 2w ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 50¢ | $8 |
| 2w ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 50¢ | $8 |
| 2w ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 44¢ | $316 |
| 2w ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 43¢ | $43 |