Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green?
ActiveLiquidity $17.5K·Volume $31.7K·Ends Nov 8, 2026
Price now:Yes11%No89%
Smart money leans
No
89% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
79%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
89%price89%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$2,452 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h -$130
Smart money entered75¢89¢at 07:07(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy3d agoResolvesended(Nov 8, 2026)Liquidity$17.5K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are strongly betting on "No", with $2,452 riding on it.
The price of 89% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 75¢; the price was 89¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $2,452 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have trimmed -$130 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:07
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 3.6¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 3.6¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | No | 97¢ | $141 |
| 1d ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | No | 97¢ | $141 |
| 2d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | No | 80¢ | $118 |
| 3d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 23¢ | $466 |
| 3d ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 40¢ | $39 |
| 4d ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 48¢ | $4 |
| 4d ago | viniiTop | Buy | Yes | 26¢ | $247 |
| 4d ago | viniiTop | Buy | Yes | 38¢ | $32 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $115 |
| 4d ago | viniiTop | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $178 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 15¢ | $150 |
| 4d ago | viniiTop | Buy | No | 76¢ | $3,668 |
| 5d ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 76¢ | $2 |
| 5d ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 76¢ | $7 |
| 5d ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 76¢ | $7 |
| 5d ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 76¢ | $7 |
| 5d ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | Yes | 24¢ | $258 |
| 5d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $196 |
| 1w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 80¢ | $20 |