Will the Moderate Party (M) be in the next Swedish government?
ActiveLiquidity $22.3K·Volume $33.3K·Ends Sep 14, 2026
Price now:Yes54%No47%
Smart money leans
No
47% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
47%price47%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$684 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
-$19
72h +$483
Smart money entered49¢47¢at 06:38(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy19h agoResolvesended(Sep 14, 2026)Liquidity$22.3K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $684 riding on it.
The price of 47% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 49¢; the price was 47¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $684 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been trimming this position (-$19, +$483 over 3 days) — a sign conviction may be fading.
Delayed 1h · as of 06:38
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10h ago | DreamwireMid | Sell | No | 47¢ | $49 |
| 17h ago | DreamwireMid | Sell | No | 49¢ | $74 |
| 17h ago | DreamwireMid | Sell | No | 49¢ | $74 |
| 19h ago | DreamwireMid | Buy | No | 38¢ | $2 |
| 19h ago | DreamwireMid | Buy | No | 38¢ | $2 |
| 20h ago | DreamwireMid | Buy | No | 38¢ | $0 |
| 20h ago | DreamwireMid | Buy | No | 38¢ | $0 |
| 20h ago | DreamwireMid | Buy | No | 38¢ | $137 |
| 2d ago | viniiTop | Buy | No | 46¢ | $507 |
| 2w ago | RLWGMid | Buy | No | 82¢ | $4 |
| 5w ago | DreamwireMid | Buy | No | 80¢ | $238 |
| 6w ago | DreamwireMid | Sell | Yes | 17¢ | $17 |
| 6w ago | DreamwireMid | Buy | Yes | 14¢ | $14 |