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Will the Minnesota 2026 Senate race be within 5%?

ActiveLiquidity $11.4K·Volume $16.0K·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes1%No99%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 06:58computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
No
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$487 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
-$54
72h -$54
Smart money entered72¢99¢at 06:58(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy6d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$11.4K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $487 riding on it.

The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 72¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Note: only $487 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been trimming this position (-$54, -$54 over 3 days) — a sign conviction may be fading.

Delayed 1h · as of 06:58
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
8h agoG.HchenTopSellNo100¢$27
8h agoG.HchenTopSellNo100¢$27
6d agoHolyMoses7MidBuyNo98¢$122
1w ago0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTopBuyNo72¢$3
1w ago0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTopBuyNo72¢$14
1w ago0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTopBuyNo72¢$16
1w ago0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTopSellNo76¢$101
1w agoG.HchenTopBuyNo71¢$18
1w ago0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTopBuyNo64¢$169
2w ago0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTopBuyNo57¢$57
2w ago0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTopBuyNo59¢$73
3w agoG.HchenTopBuyNo35¢$2
3w agoG.HchenTopSellNo74¢$110
4w agoG.HchenTopSellNo79¢$118
4w agoG.HchenTopSellNo74¢$73
4w agoJAMJAMJAM4MidBuyNo74¢$74
4w agoJAMJAMJAM4MidBuyNo74¢$42
7w agoG.HchenTopBuyNo75¢$136
7w agoqizhan1MidBuyNo76¢$5
8w agoG.HchenTopBuyNo82¢$82
8w agoG.HchenTopBuyNo80¢$97