Will the Minnesota 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
ActiveLiquidity $11.4K·Volume $16.0K·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes1%No99%
Smart money leans
No
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$487 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
-$54
72h -$54
Smart money entered72¢99¢at 06:58(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy6d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$11.4K
Explanation
3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $487 riding on it.
The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 72¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $487 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been trimming this position (-$54, -$54 over 3 days) — a sign conviction may be fading.
Delayed 1h · as of 06:58
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8h ago | G.HchenTop | Sell | No | 100¢ | $27 |
| 8h ago | G.HchenTop | Sell | No | 100¢ | $27 |
| 6d ago | HolyMoses7Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $122 |
| 1w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | No | 72¢ | $3 |
| 1w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | No | 72¢ | $14 |
| 1w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | No | 72¢ | $16 |
| 1w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | No | 76¢ | $101 |
| 1w ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | No | 71¢ | $18 |
| 1w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | No | 64¢ | $169 |
| 2w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | No | 57¢ | $57 |
| 2w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | No | 59¢ | $73 |
| 3w ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | No | 35¢ | $2 |
| 3w ago | G.HchenTop | Sell | No | 74¢ | $110 |
| 4w ago | G.HchenTop | Sell | No | 79¢ | $118 |
| 4w ago | G.HchenTop | Sell | No | 74¢ | $73 |
| 4w ago | JAMJAMJAM4Mid | Buy | No | 74¢ | $74 |
| 4w ago | JAMJAMJAM4Mid | Buy | No | 74¢ | $42 |
| 7w ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | No | 75¢ | $136 |
| 7w ago | qizhan1Mid | Buy | No | 76¢ | $5 |
| 8w ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | No | 82¢ | $82 |
| 8w ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | No | 80¢ | $97 |