Will the median home value in the US be between $407,000 and $411,000 on December 31?
ActiveLiquidity $2,194·Volume $18.5K·Ends Jan 11, 2027
Price now:Yes33%No67%
Smart money leans
Yes
33% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
33%price33%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$298 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered28¢33¢at 07:38(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2d agoResolvesin 61d(Jan 11, 2027)Liquidity$2,194
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $298 riding on it.
The price of 33% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 28¢; the price was 33¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $298 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:38
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2d ago | YoungAlphaGoatTop | Buy | Yes | 28¢ | $309 |
| 2d ago | YoungAlphaGoatTop | Sell | Yes | 35¢ | $361 |
| 1w ago | YoungAlphaGoatTop | Buy | Yes | 22¢ | $236 |
| 1w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 59¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 65¢ | $3 |