Will the median home value in Austin Metro be less than $397,000 on December 31?
ActiveLiquidity $2,000·Volume $14.6K·Ends Jan 11, 2027
Price now:Yes83%No18%
Smart money leans
Yes
82% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
82%price82%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$401 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered68¢82¢at 07:36(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy3d agoResolvesin 61d(Jan 11, 2027)Liquidity$2,000
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $401 riding on it.
The price of 82% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 68¢; the price was 82¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $401 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:36
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3d ago | clazzy1Mid | Buy | Yes | 74¢ | $252 |
| 1w ago | YoungAlphaGoatTop | Sell | Yes | 63¢ | $3 |
| 1w ago | YoungAlphaGoatTop | Sell | Yes | 79¢ | $605 |
| 1w ago | YoungAlphaGoatTop | Buy | Yes | 76¢ | $15 |
| 1w ago | YoungAlphaGoatTop | Sell | Yes | 82¢ | $249 |
| 1w ago | YoungAlphaGoatTop | Sell | Yes | 85¢ | $18 |
| 1w ago | YoungAlphaGoatTop | Buy | Yes | 75¢ | $150 |
| 1w ago | YoungAlphaGoatTop | Buy | Yes | 57¢ | $663 |