Will the Labour Party win 35-39 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
ActiveLiquidity $11.3K·Volume $17.9K·Ends Nov 8, 2026
Price now:Yes99%No1%
Smart money leans
Yes
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$2,371 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered61¢99¢at 17:13(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy4d agoResolvesended(Nov 8, 2026)Liquidity$11.3K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $2,371 riding on it.
The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 61¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $2,371 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 17:13
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d ago | fbetMid | Buy | Yes | 97¢ | $1,340 |
| 4d ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | Yes | 59¢ | $75 |
| 5d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 41¢ | $1,084 |
| 1w ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | Yes | 42¢ | $66 |
| 2w ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | Yes | 41¢ | $87 |
| 3w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 31¢ | $158 |
| 10w ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | No | 66¢ | $3 |