Will the KMT win Taipei and the DPP win New Taipei?
ActiveLiquidity $11.1K·Volume $1,855·Ends Nov 29, 2026
Price now:Yes35%No66%
Smart money leans
Yes
35% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
35%price35%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$170 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$345
Smart money entered34¢35¢at 00:24(37% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy2d agoResolvesin 18d(Nov 29, 2026)Liquidity$11.1K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $170 riding on it.
The price of 35% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 34¢; the price was 35¢ at this snapshot — roughly 37% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $170 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$345 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 00:24
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2d ago | scrapbookMid | Buy | Yes | 34¢ | $170 |
| 2d ago | scrapbookMid | Buy | Yes | 34¢ | $170 |
| 4d ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 55¢ | $3 |