Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?
ActiveLiquidity $1,042·Volume $77.2K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes93%No7%
Smart money leans
Yes
87% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
87%price87%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$1,141 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered55¢87¢at 07:42(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneSignal age30dResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$1,042
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $1,141 riding on it.
The price of 87% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 55¢; the price was 87¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $1,141 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:42
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2w ago | 101456Mid | Buy | Yes | 35¢ | $11 |
| 2w ago | 101456Mid | Buy | Yes | 35¢ | $6 |
| 3w ago | 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876Mid | Sell | Yes | 51¢ | $107 |
| 6w ago | viniiTop | Buy | Yes | 42¢ | $77 |
| 6w ago | viniiTop | Buy | Yes | 50¢ | $51 |
| 6w ago | 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876Mid | Buy | Yes | 59¢ | $222 |
| 6w ago | 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876Mid | Buy | Yes | 52¢ | $248 |
| 12w ago | viniiTop | Buy | Yes | 57¢ | $352 |
| 12w ago | viniiTop | Buy | Yes | 57¢ | $329 |