Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?
ActiveLiquidity $865·Volume $46.3K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes59%No42%
Smart money leans
Yes
60% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
60%price60%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$365 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h -$148
Smart money entered25¢60¢at 07:44(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneSignal age30dResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$865
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $365 riding on it.
The price of 60% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 25¢; the price was 60¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $365 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have trimmed -$148 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:44