Will the Democrats win the Arizona Secretary of State race in 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $12.3K·Volume $9,073·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes100%No0%
Smart money leans
Yes
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$2,546 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered89¢100¢at 11:50(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$12.3K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $2,546 riding on it.
The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 89¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $2,546 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 11:50
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $763 |
| 1w ago | Crypto-JoeTop | Buy | Yes | 89¢ | $280 |
| 1w ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | Yes | 87¢ | $491 |
| 1w ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | Yes | 88¢ | $35 |
| 1w ago | ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGMid | Buy | Yes | 86¢ | $10 |
| 1w ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | Yes | 84¢ | $979 |