Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?
ActiveLiquidity $38.9K·Volume $186.9K·Ends Nov 29, 2026
Price now:Yes32%No68%
Smart money leans
No
66% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.1pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
66%price66%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$2,936 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$141
Smart money entered68¢66¢at 11:52(0% priced in)Edge left+0.1ppLast smart buy1d agoResolvesin 18d(Nov 29, 2026)Liquidity$38.9K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $2,936 riding on it.
The price of 66% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 68¢; the price was 66¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $2,936 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$141 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 11:52
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d ago | YouSayUpISayDownMid | Buy | No | 64¢ | $10 |
| 1d ago | YouSayUpISayDownMid | Buy | No | 71¢ | $71 |
| 1d ago | YouSayUpISayDownMid | Buy | No | 71¢ | $71 |
| 4d ago | YouSayUpISayDownMid | Sell | No | 74¢ | $73 |
| 5d ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | No | 67¢ | $999 |
| 5d ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | No | 68¢ | $682 |
| 5d ago | YouSayUpISayDownMid | Buy | No | 74¢ | $74 |
| 6d ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 84¢ | $105 |
| 1w ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 84¢ | $43 |
| 1w ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 80¢ | $515 |
| 1w ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 80¢ | $49 |
| 1w ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 80¢ | $88 |
| 1w ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 80¢ | $93 |
| 1w ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 80¢ | $61 |
| 1w ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 78¢ | $467 |
| 1w ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 85¢ | $255 |
| 1w ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $35 |
| 3w ago | YouSayUpISayDownMid | Sell | No | 63¢ | $55 |
| 3w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | No | 65¢ | $652 |
| 3w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | No | 66¢ | $54 |
| 3w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | No | 66¢ | $40 |
| 3w ago | YouSayUpISayDownMid | Sell | No | 66¢ | $39 |
| 3w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | No | 66¢ | $437 |
| 3w ago | YouSayUpISayDownMid | Buy | No | 67¢ | $40 |
| 3w ago | YouSayUpISayDownMid | Sell | No | 72¢ | $4 |
| 3w ago | YouSayUpISayDownMid | Buy | No | 70¢ | $4 |
| 3w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | No | 70¢ | $703 |
| 4w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | No | 67¢ | $21 |
| 4w ago | YouSayUpISayDownMid | Sell | No | 67¢ | $21 |
| 4w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | No | 67¢ | $105 |
| 4w ago | YouSayUpISayDownMid | Buy | No | 75¢ | $66 |
| 4w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | No | 70¢ | $696 |
| 4w ago | YouSayUpISayDownMid | Buy | No | 79¢ | $24 |