Will the Democratic Party win the CA-23 House seat?
ActiveLiquidity $53.8K·Volume $172.3K·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes3%No97%
Smart money leans
No
97% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
97%price97%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$3,804 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$976
72h +$3,442
Smart money entered96¢97¢at 20:23(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2h agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$53.8K
Explanation
3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $3,804 riding on it.
The price of 97% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 96¢; the price was 97¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$976, +$3,442 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 20:23
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 97¢ | $166 |
| 2h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 97¢ | $166 |
| 8h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 97¢ | $263 |
| 8h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 97¢ | $263 |
| 8h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 97¢ | $58 |
| 8h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 97¢ | $58 |
| 1d ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 97¢ | $583 |
| 2d ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 97¢ | $576 |
| 2d ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 97¢ | $6 |
| 2d ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 98¢ | $1,305 |
| 3d ago | 0x955c9661bf6e010beff0ba896a49f715a8c8990fTop | Buy | No | 98¢ | $386 |
| 3w ago | 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836Top | Sell | No | 98¢ | $5,295 |