Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VT-AL House election by 30%-35%?
ActiveLiquidity $121·Volume $4,792·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes58%No42%
Smart money leans
Yes
64% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
64%price64%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$318 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered45¢64¢at 07:25(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy4d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$121
Explanation
3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $318 riding on it.
The price of 64% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 45¢; the price was 64¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $318 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:25
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d ago | ancianoMid | Buy | Yes | 94¢ | $227 |
| 1w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 27¢ | $144 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 23¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 22¢ | $21 |