Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-04 House election by 45% or more?
ActiveLiquidity $25·Volume $6,239·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes94%No7%
Smart money leans
Yes
94% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
94%price94%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$264 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered43¢94¢at 07:24(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$25
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $264 riding on it.
The price of 94% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 43¢; the price was 94¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $264 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:24
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | Yes | 14¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | Yes | 28¢ | $29 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 42¢ | $8 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | Yes | 48¢ | $28 |
| 1w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | Yes | 43¢ | $131 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 43¢ | $345 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 57¢ | $7 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 26¢ | $3 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 40¢ | $16 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 53¢ | $11 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 54¢ | $11 |
| 5w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 37¢ | $76 |
| 6w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 38¢ | $41 |