Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-03 House election by 45%-50%?
ActiveLiquidity $64·Volume $5,860·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes53%No47%
Smart money leans
Yes
53% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
53%price53%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$287 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered51¢53¢at 07:29(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy3d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$64
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $287 riding on it.
The price of 53% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 51¢; the price was 53¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $287 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:29
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 87¢ | $18 |
| 3d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 82¢ | $247 |
| 1w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 61¢ | $53 |
| 1w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 44¢ | $51 |
| 2w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | Yes | 28¢ | $17 |
| 2w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | Yes | 28¢ | $6 |
| 2w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | Yes | 28¢ | $6 |
| 3w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | Yes | 22¢ | $2 |
| 3w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 21¢ | $10 |
| 5w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 24¢ | $18 |
| 6w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 78¢ | $35 |
| 7w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 88¢ | $25 |
| 7w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 79¢ | $16 |
| 7w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 79¢ | $75 |