Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 UT-01 House election by 40% or more?
ActiveLiquidity $183·Volume $1,992·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes87%No13%
Smart money leans
Yes
87% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
87%price87%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$423 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered66¢87¢at 07:24(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy3d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$183
Explanation
3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $423 riding on it.
The price of 87% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 66¢; the price was 87¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $423 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:24
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 84¢ | $265 |
| 1w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 76¢ | $153 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 16¢ | $10 |
| 1w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $0 |
| 2w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $1 |
| 2w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $1 |
| 2w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $1 |
| 2w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $3 |
| 3w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 14¢ | $0 |
| 4w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 9.9¢ | $9 |