Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-30 House election by 65%-70%?
ActiveLiquidity $49·Volume $4,184·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes65%No35%
Smart money leans
Yes
65% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
65%price65%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$274 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered72¢65¢at 07:12(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy6d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$49
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $274 riding on it.
The price of 65% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 72¢; the price was 65¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $274 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:12
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 87¢ | $9 |
| 6d ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 72¢ | $287 |
| 6d ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 72¢ | $14 |
| 2w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | Yes | 12¢ | $38 |
| 2w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | Yes | 8.0¢ | $0 |
| 2w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | Yes | 8.0¢ | $0 |
| 2w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | Yes | 8.0¢ | $1 |
| 2w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 1.1¢ | $4 |
| 3w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 7.0¢ | $1 |