Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-09 House election by 6% or more?
ActiveLiquidity $135·Volume $2,083·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes95%No5%
Smart money leans
Yes
95% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
95%price95%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$480 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered75¢95¢at 07:40(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy6d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$135
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $480 riding on it.
The price of 95% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 75¢; the price was 95¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $480 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:40
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d ago | HolyMoses7Mid | Buy | Yes | 95¢ | $467 |
| 1w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 35¢ | $7 |
| 1w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 8.6¢ | $9 |