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Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election by 25%-30%?

ActiveLiquidity $344·Volume $14.0K·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes29%No71%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 07:09computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Yes
29% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
29%price29%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$588 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$415
72h +$421
Smart money entered29¢29¢at 07:09(29% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy14h agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$344
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $588 riding on it.

The price of 29% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 29¢; the price was 29¢ at this snapshot — roughly 29% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Note: only $588 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$415, +$421 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 07:09
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
14h agolongliveapplesTopBuyYes50¢$358
14h agolongliveapplesTopBuyYes50¢$358
2d agolongliveapplesTopBuyYes50¢$10
3d agolongliveapplesTopBuyYes30¢$293
4d agoshiifooMidBuyYes7.9¢$3
4d agoshiifooMidBuyYes9.5¢$1
4d agoshiifooMidBuyYes9.5¢$6
4d agoshiifooMidBuyYes9.5¢$6
4d agoshiifooMidBuyYes11¢$2
4d agoshiifooMidBuyYes11¢$2
5d agothanksforplayinTopBuyYes11¢$102
1w agoshiifooMidBuyYes9.0¢$4
2w agoshiifooMidBuyNo88¢$17
2w agoshiifooMidBuyNo88¢$61
2w agoshiifooMidBuyNo87¢$174
2w agoshiifooMidBuyNo85¢$170
2w agoshiifooMidBuyNo85¢$17
3w agoshiifooMidBuyNo83¢$155
3w agoshiifooMidBuyNo80¢$48
3w agoshiifooMidBuyNo84¢$169
3w agoshiifooMidBuyNo88¢$177
3w agoshiifooMidBuyNo91¢$182
3w agoshiifooMidBuyNo89¢$36
3w agoshiifooMidBuyNo85¢$172
3w agoshiifooMidBuyNo85¢$170
3w agoshiifooMidBuyNo83¢$167
3w agoshiifooMidBuyNo84¢$169