Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election by 25%-30%?
ActiveLiquidity $344·Volume $14.0K·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes29%No71%
Smart money leans
Yes
29% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
29%price29%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$588 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$415
72h +$421
Smart money entered29¢29¢at 07:09(29% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy14h agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$344
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $588 riding on it.
The price of 29% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 29¢; the price was 29¢ at this snapshot — roughly 29% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $588 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$415, +$421 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:09
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14h ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 50¢ | $358 |
| 14h ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 50¢ | $358 |
| 2d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 50¢ | $10 |
| 3d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $293 |
| 4d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 7.9¢ | $3 |
| 4d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 9.5¢ | $1 |
| 4d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 9.5¢ | $6 |
| 4d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 9.5¢ | $6 |
| 4d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $2 |
| 4d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $2 |
| 5d ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $102 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 9.0¢ | $4 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 88¢ | $17 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 88¢ | $61 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 87¢ | $174 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 85¢ | $170 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 85¢ | $17 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $155 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 80¢ | $48 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 84¢ | $169 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 88¢ | $177 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $182 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 89¢ | $36 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 85¢ | $172 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 85¢ | $170 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $167 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 84¢ | $169 |